Economist: China No. 1 by 2027 Seems ‘A Certainty’
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/02/28/economist-china-no-1-by-2027-seems-a-certainty/
With China now officially confirmed as the world’s second largest economy, the question is when – if ever – it will become number one and force the U.S. to eat its dust . A secondary question: What will be the role of the yuan if China takes the top spot?
Takatoshi Ito, an economist at Tokyo University, thinks China’s heading to the top fairly quickly. Writing in the December Asian Economic Policy Review, a publication that sometimes gets overlooked on the academic circuit, he calculates that China should pass the U.S. sometime between 2021 and 2027, even if Chinese growth rates slow. The one wild card: China slips into a Japan-like lost decade , which he considers a low probability event.
“China as number one before 2027 seems to be a certainty,” he wrote.
He’s more optimistic about China than others, including Arvind Subramanian, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who figures the cross-over point will be around 2030. With four times the. U.S. population, China needs a GDP per capita of slightly more than one-fourth the U.S. to push ahead. Currently, China’s GDP per capita is one-eleventh the level of the U.S.
What does the number one ranking mean for the yuan? In 2011, the yuan accounted for roughly 0.2% for foreign exchange transactions, just behind the Hungarian forint. The much-criticized dollar ranked first, accounting for the majority of transactions, while the euro was a distant number two.
Mr. Ito doesn’t make any forecast about how rapidly the yuan will climb on the forex charts. But he does say the yuan has a big footprint regionally. The last time the yuan floated somewhat, from 2005 to 2008, he says the Singaporean dollar, Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso moved more or less in lockstep.
He figures something similar will happen now, given China’s efforts to have the yuan used more internationally. “The process toward at least becoming a regional key currency, and eventually the international key current, seems to have started,” he wrote.
–Bob Davis
下面两条消息也很有意思:
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/03/01/late-departure-china-airforce-flies-to-libya/
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/02/25/libyan-turmoil-prompts-chinese-naval-firsts/
- posted on 03/01/2011
老华自古就会做生意,打北宋到南宋,到元,经济都很发达。明永乐郑和后封海令,
清还是世界级的经济鼎盛,一直到乾隆末。犹太人那点手艺,老华们一学即会。比
如这回搞新世界金融,犹记得上海当年所有库存都不足修一道南浦大桥,现在金融
了,不就是数字经济,一玩即会。这会儿有几十道南浦大桥了吧?
上回了解到,还是请了两个经济国师,一老犹,一老德?皆籍美。但,老华还得有
些自己的创造发明,交子是一千年以前的事了。
如果说The Business of America is Business(也是老犹),迟早玩不过老华的。
- posted on 03/01/2011
《经济学家》做了四个interactive maps, 分别按GDP, GDP per capita, Population, Exports比较中国各省相当于哪个国家,闲时可以看看玩玩:
http://www.economist.com/content/all_parities_china
还有一个美国各州的类似比较(GDP,Population),可以和中国对比着看:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/01/comparing_us_states_countries
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